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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd